Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 23.164147 27.737302 32.752498 38.631700 45.304798 52.613673 61.193302
2025-08-24 16.240546 22.192517 29.374918 38.552167 49.830166 63.098360 79.738759
2025-08-31 11.814789 18.047236 26.181940 37.302521 51.811034 69.788728 93.408023
2025-09-07 9.532019 16.006060 25.024558 38.038345 55.822602 78.738565 109.894157
2025-09-14 7.449661 13.748371 23.098106 37.297389 57.547284 84.574689 122.446666
2025-09-21 6.279774 12.594954 22.497257 38.194110 61.375126 93.200850 138.873068
2025-09-28 4.798823 10.607023 20.303171 36.422994 61.149168 96.134739 147.616899
2025-10-05 4.196105 10.009593 20.193101 37.737686 65.408545 105.421101 165.362006
2025-10-12 3.627950 9.350449 19.866837 38.625333 69.009566 113.857601 182.174171
2025-10-19 3.125253 8.707523 19.463868 39.305786 72.269715 121.873279 198.617111
2025-10-26 2.738172 8.219544 19.261913 40.270704 75.983608 130.660141 216.427026
2025-11-02 2.254143 7.395019 18.303492 39.803583 77.307803 135.840453 229.062151
2025-11-09 1.890344 6.799672 17.779896 40.192180 80.284214 144.023824 247.021251
2025-11-16 1.539841 6.137580 17.026936 40.095835 82.462270 151.116290 263.713115
2025-11-23 1.174108 5.295714 15.734207 38.806146 82.444984 154.669537 275.062189
2025-11-30 0.998481 4.957932 15.507055 39.564924 86.051873 164.163861 295.883114
2025-12-07 0.776814 4.372098 14.586257 38.800780 86.825709 169.008396 309.520069
2025-12-14 0.667280 4.137870 14.485472 39.725544 90.738411 179.184186 331.898613
2025-12-21 0.478961 3.487621 13.179713 37.898896 89.332404 180.302795 339.728294
2025-12-28 0.423006 3.376593 13.307662 39.254864 94.086469 192.092524 365.190800
2026-01-04 0.362449 3.210121 13.248175 40.170200 98.015327 202.572653 388.772251
2026-01-11 0.305701 3.027283 13.105813 40.871784 101.544567 212.457016 411.613576
2026-01-18 0.263005 2.894236 13.089593 41.866528 105.702593 223.571012 436.767705